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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still